The hottest American director crude oil plummeted

2022-08-06
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Us director oil slump

US director: crude oil plummeted

October 13, 2014

[China paint information] I didn't want to say much about oil prices, but the recent sharp drop in oil prices is really strange. Since June, the US West Texas light crude oil index has fallen by more than 20%. Brent crude oil once fell to $85 a barrel, the lowest price in four years. Related, domestic refined oil products are about to fall for six consecutive years, which is a rare phenomenon. The decapitation of oil prices at the current time point may not be simply caused by economic factors

at the beginning of the crude oil slump, some people believed that the oil price crisis was an economic "decapitation" by the United States and Saudi Arabia against Russia, Syria and Iran

this is reasonable. At present, both Iran and Russia are heavily dependent on crude oil exports, especially Russia, which derives half of its fiscal revenue from crude oil and natural gas. Crude oil and natural gas also play a huge role, that is, they are a bridge for Russia to effectively buffer EU relations. You can also see that on the Crimea issue, the EU has been unable to adopt a unified sanctions attitude towards Russia, in fact, considering that many countries rely heavily on Russia for natural gas and oil

a scenario can be made: at such a time point, if the global oil price plummets, Russia's oil exports will no longer be attractive to the EU; Even if this export cooperation direction is maintained, under the dual effects of Western sanctions and the decline of the ruble, Russia will certainly bear a heavier economic blow

there is another statement that is also testing this hypothesis. Why did the Arab States and the United States jointly attack Isis? In fact, the target is the Assad government, and behind this cooperation, the bargaining chip of Arab commitment is crude oil. Later, we saw that under the downward trend of global oil prices, Saudi Arabia not only did not reduce production to push up oil prices, but unilaterally provoked a price war, making OPEC compete to reduce prices. This indeed confirms this assumption to a certain extent

the economic tactics of turning over the history and manipulating oil prices. The United States hopes to bring us a certain help. It is not surprising that it has tried repeatedly

the most successful case is precisely the Soviet Union, the predecessor of Russia. In the early 1970s, 60% of the foreign exchange income of the Soviet Union came from oil and gas exports to the West. In the months of 1973, the crude oil price rose rapidly from US $3 to US $12, an increase of 400%. The speculation that the oil price would never fall led to the rapid expansion of relevant manufacturing industries in the Soviet Union. At the middle of the cold war, most of the Soviet Russia's nuclear arsenals were actually built at this stage. The income from oil export became the key for the Soviet Union to maintain its military construction. However, the short-term prosperity is also an important factor for the smooth progress of the experiment and the accuracy of the experimental results. In 1985, the arms race was in full swing, and the United States induced Saudi Arabia to increase a large number of production, resulting in a rapid drop in oil prices from $30 to $10. Although it rebounded back to $15, it still could not save the fate of the financial collapse of the Soviet Union. Four years later, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and the United States won the cold war

in contrast, Russia is also facing such problems

after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, in addition to the driving force of privatization reform, an important key to Russia's rejuvenation is to take a ride on the rising prices of international bulk commodities. This free ride actually emerged precisely because the United States, after defeating the Soviet Union, targeted the second superpower, China

after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China's reform and opening-up was in full swing, and market-oriented reform began to take shape. This has also brought huge demand for raw materials. Therefore, the United States and Western countries use this demand to comprehensively raise the commodity prices China needs. The most obvious is that in 2008, the price of crude oil soared from $60 to $140 in the short term. Maybe it was created by some interest groups, but behind the double and a half increase, the purpose of the United States to pass on the economic crisis of other countries through the price of raw materials is undeniable. However, at that time, China was even more ruthless and directly sacrificed $4trillion. The manufacturing pressure caused by the appreciation of raw materials was effectively hedged by the fiscal policy

more importantly, during the same period, Putin began to show a strong diplomatic style that was more and more exclusive of the United States. The United States suddenly found that the old maozi who sold arms and oil had returned and had a firm foothold in the Middle East. As a result, the price of crude oil collapsed rapidly and was beaten back to $60. This can be said to be the first battle of the US Russian oil war

as for the impact of controlling oil prices on Russia, it is very obvious. According to the calculation of the Federal Reserve Bank of Russia, if the crude oil price is maintained at $90/barrel, Russia's fiscal revenue will decrease by 1.5% in 2015. The crude oil price needs to be maintained at 104 US dollars/barrel in order for Russia to maintain its balance of payments. If it does plummet back to $60 this time, it means that Russia will face a huge financial crisis, a deep recession, a large current account and fiscal deficit, and a huge capital flight

of course, there is another question. Is the conspiracy to manipulate oil prices so easy to achieve? At present, we know that the price of the New York crude oil exchange, the world's major oil trading platform, is affected by various factors, including the level of U.S. oil reserves, which is now about 700million barrels. It is usually supplemented according to the current oil price and financial capacity. Theoretically, it is possible for strategic reserves to increase or decrease sharply, so it has become one of the speculative factors for the sharp rise and fall of oil prices, There are detailed requirements and standards for the construction of external wall internal insulation and roof insulation. Once the United States uses combat oil wells and oil reserves, it can greatly avoid excessive stacking of spraying materials on the adjacent spraying path: the path of spraying one large part is more simplified, which greatly reduces imports, reduces the level of demand, and leads to a sharp drop in oil prices

in previous years, if the United States used oil weapons, it would be a seven injury fist that killed thousands of enemies and lost 800. After the shale gas revolution and the United States' almost self-sufficiency in energy, it is most appropriate to use oil as a weapon for foreign aggression. Especially under the background that the little European brothers refused to leave Russia for asylum because of oil

with huge reserves, its own energy revolution, and its strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia, it is actually most appropriate for the United States to launch an oil offensive to strengthen its voice at this stage and accelerate the outbreak of Russian risks

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